2019•Scandinavian Journal of StatisticsRequires access

Confidence intervals for extreme Pareto‐type quantiles

Sven Buitendag, Jan Beirlant, Tertius de Wet

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Abstract

Abstract In this paper, we revisit the construction of confidence intervals for extreme quantiles of Pareto‐type distributions. A novel asymptotic pivotal quantity is proposed for these quantile estimators, which leads to new asymptotic confidence intervals that exhibit more accurate coverage probability. This pivotal quantity also allows for the construction of a saddle‐point approximation, from which a second set of new confidence intervals follows. The small‐sample properties and utility of these confidence intervals are studied using simulations and a case study from insurance.

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What this paper is about

Abstract In this paper, we revisit the construction of confidence intervals for extreme quantiles of Pareto‐type distributions. A novel asymptotic pivotal quantity is proposed for these quantile estimators, which leads to new asymptotic confidence intervals that exhibit more accurate coverage probability. This pivotal quantity also allows for the construction of a saddle‐point approximation, from which a second set of new confidence intervals follows. The small‐sample properties and utility of these confidence intervals are studied using simulations and a case study from insurance.

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Available abstract

Abstract In this paper, we revisit the construction of confidence intervals for extreme quantiles of Pareto‐type distributions. A novel asymptotic pivotal quantity is proposed for these quantile estimators, which leads to new asymptotic confidence intervals that exhibit more accurate coverage probability. This pivotal quantity also allows for the construction of a saddle‐point approximation, from which a second set of new confidence intervals follows. The small‐sample properties and utility of these confidence intervals are studied using simulations and a case study from insurance.

Key concepts: Quantile, Mathematics, Confidence interval, Pareto principle, Statistics, Estimator, Coverage probability, CDF-based nonparametric confidence interval

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