China's Evolving Nuclear Posture. Part 1 - Background and Benchmark

Abstract : This paper is the first part of a larger study the goal of which is to determine the trajectory of China's nuclear weapons policy, strategy, capability and doctrine. It discusses the origins, scope and methodology of the proposed study, and provides an overview of the evolution of US nuclear strategy in order to establish a baseline for discussing why, and to what extent, China's nuclear evolution has differed from US nuclear thinking. In doing so it sets the stage for further papers examining the evolution of China's nuclear strategy; the status of its strategic nuclear forces; and the drivers of China's declaratory policy, nuclear strategy, and nuclear doctrine. The study will terminate with a comprehensive report discussing the apparent trajectory of Chinese nuclear strategy and capability and the implications thereof for Canada and its allies, and will suggest directions for future research.