Sick leave due to musculoskeletal pain: determinants of distinct trajectories over 1 year

PURPOSE: This study aimed to identify sub-groups of workers with different trajectories of sick leave due to musculoskeletal pain over 1 year, and to investigate the extent to which the identified trajectories are associated with personal, occupational, lifestyle, and pain-related factors at baseline. METHODS: Data on 981 blue- and white-collar workers were analyzed in the DPHACTO cohort (2012-2014). The number of days on sick leave due to pain was reported using text messages at 4-week intervals across 1 year. Latent class growth analysis was used to distinguish sub-groups with different trajectories of sick leave. A web-based questionnaire at baseline was used to assess personal, occupational (physical and psychosocial), lifestyle, and pain-related factors. Multinomial regression models were constructed to determine associations between baseline factors and trajectories of sick leave (referencing no sick leave), with adjustment for potential confounders. RESULTS: Four distinct sub-groups were identified, with trajectories of sick leave due to pain ranging from no sick leave (prevalence 76%; average 0.5 days/year) to some days and increasing sick leave due to pain over 1 year (2%; 89 days/year). The increasing trajectory of sick leave was associated with higher perceived physical exertion, more time in manual work, less social community and influence at work, less leisure-time physical activity, smoking, and more severe symptoms (e.g., multisite pain, low back pain intensity, and pain interference). CONCLUSIONS: We identified four distinct trajectories of sick leave due to musculoskeletal pain. The sub-group with increasing sick leave due to pain was associated with several modifiable physical and psychosocial factors at work and outside work, which may have implications for prevention.