Relative Contributions of North and South Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies to ENSO

Abstract Variations in the sea surface temperature (SST) field in both the North Pacific (represented by the Victoria mode [VM]) and the South Pacific (represented by the South Pacific quadrapole [SPQ] mode) are related to the state of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) three seasons later. Here with the aid of observational data and numerical experiments, we demonstrate that both VM and SPQ SST forcing can influence the development of ENSO events through a similar air‐sea coupling mechanism. By comparing ENSO amplitudes induced by the VM and SPQ, as well as the percentages of strong ENSO events followed by the VM and SPQ events, we find that the VM and SPQ make comparable contributions and therefore have similar levels of importance to ENSO. Additional analysis indicates that although VM or SPQ SST forcing alone may serve as a good predictor for ENSO events, it is more effective to consider their combined influence. A prediction model based on both VM and SPQ indices is developed, which is capable of yielding skillful forecasts for ENSO at lead times of three seasons.