2019•Emerging Markets Finance and TradeRequires access

Meta-Analysis of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Developed and Emerging Economies

Jarko Fidrmuc, Katarína Danišková

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Abstract

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) has become an inherent part of modern monetary policy models. It is derived from micro-founded models with rational expectations, sticky prices, and forward and backward-looking subjects on the market. Reviewing about 200 studies, we analyze the weight of the forward-looking behavior in the hybrid NKPC by means of meta regression. We show that selected data and method characteristics have significant impact on reported results. Moreover, we find a significant publication bias including publications in top journals, while we document no bias for the most cited studies and the most cited authors.

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What this paper is about

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) has become an inherent part of modern monetary policy models. It is derived from micro-founded models with rational expectations, sticky prices, and forward and backward-looking subjects on the market. Reviewing about 200 studies, we analyze the weight of the forward-looking behavior in the hybrid NKPC by means of meta regression. We show that selected data and method characteristics have significant impact on reported results. Moreover, we find a significant publication bias including publications in top journals, while we document no bias for the most cited studies and the most cited authors.

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Available abstract

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) has become an inherent part of modern monetary policy models. It is derived from micro-founded models with rational expectations, sticky prices, and forward and backward-looking subjects on the market. Reviewing about 200 studies, we analyze the weight of the forward-looking behavior in the hybrid NKPC by means of meta regression. We show that selected data and method characteristics have significant impact on reported results. Moreover, we find a significant publication bias including publications in top journals, while we document no bias for the most cited studies and the most cited authors.

Key concepts: Phillips curve, New Keynesian economics, Economics, Econometrics, Keynesian economics, Rational expectations, Monetary policy, Meta-analysis

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