2019Unpublished venueRequires access

Scottish independence referendum case study

Duncan McTavish

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Abstract

This case study is foregrounded by an outlining of the historical background of the independence referendum of 2014. The significance of unionism (initially in an Irish context) as a divide in British politics is clear. The lukewarm (sometimes hostile) view of political Conservatism to notions of home rule or devolution was identified, as was the mixed (sometimes unenthusiastic) approach of Labour, acting often in response to political pressure from nationalists providing an alternative outlet for Labour’s traditional support base. The establishment of a devolved parliament in Scotland in 1999 was a game changer, this giving the Scottish National Party a political presence which eventually led to a majority SNP government offering a referendum on independence in 2014. The case study outlines and assesses the conduct of the referendum, presents detailed data on who voted ‘yes’ and who voted ‘no’ to independence. The outcome of enhanced powers to Holyrood and the implications for the future in terms of a second referendum and on relationships with the UK are analysed.

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What this paper is about

This case study is foregrounded by an outlining of the historical background of the independence referendum of 2014. The significance of unionism (initially in an Irish context) as a divide in British politics is clear. The lukewarm (sometimes hostile) view of political Conservatism to notions of home rule or devolution was identified, as was the mixed (sometimes unenthusiastic) approach of Labour, acting often in response to political pressure from nationalists providing an alternative outlet for Labour’s traditional support base. The establishment of a devolved parliament in Scotland in 1999 was a game changer, this giving the Scottish National Party a political presence which eventually led to a majority SNP government offering a referendum on independence in 2014. The case study outlines and assesses the conduct of the referendum, presents detailed data on who voted ‘yes’ and who voted ‘no’ to independence. The outcome of enhanced powers to Holyrood and the implications for the future in terms of a second referendum and on relationships with the UK are analysed.

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Available abstract

This case study is foregrounded by an outlining of the historical background of the independence referendum of 2014. The significance of unionism (initially in an Irish context) as a divide in British politics is clear. The lukewarm (sometimes hostile) view of political Conservatism to notions of home rule or devolution was identified, as was the mixed (sometimes unenthusiastic) approach of Labour, acting often in response to political pressure from nationalists providing an alternative outlet for Labour’s traditional support base. The establishment of a devolved parliament in Scotland in 1999 was a game changer, this giving the Scottish National Party a political presence which eventually led to a majority SNP government offering a referendum on independence in 2014. The case study outlines and assesses the conduct of the referendum, presents detailed data on who voted ‘yes’ and who voted ‘no’ to independence. The outcome of enhanced powers to Holyrood and the implications for the future in terms of a second referendum and on relationships with the UK are analysed.

Key concepts: Referendum, Independence (probability theory), Political science, Law, Mathematics, Statistics, Politics

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