China’s Energy Consumption Rebound Effect Analysis Based on the Perspective of Technological Progress

Energy issues are the focus of global concern, and estimations of the energy rebound effect are very important for energy policy. Existing research has proved the existence of the energy rebound effect. This paper, based on the estimation of China’s capital stock in 1952, establishes three elements of the neoclassical production function to calculate the contribution rate of technological progress on economic growth. It then calculates China’s energy rebound effect over the past 20 years from the perspective of technological progress. The research results show that though China’s energy intensity has been declining from 1994 to 2017, the energy rebound effect each year is obviously different, with an average level of 54.4%. Technological progress leads to the improvement of energy efficiency, which reduces energy consumption, but the rebound effect makes energy savings less effective than expected. This paper proved the Granger causality between energy structure adjustment and the rebound effect. And the increase of coal consumption will enhance the rebound effect. So, upgrading the structure of energy consumption is considered helpful to reduce the energy rebound effect, which can promote energy conservation and emission reduction.