2017Unpublished venueRequires access

Can Shift in Public Debt Structure Affect Dynamics of Cost of Public Debt Service

Martin Murín

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Abstract

It is possible that a shift in the public debt structure can influence economic growth of advanced economies. The main channel to recognize this effect seems to be through the cost of public debt service. Hence, the aim of this contribution is to investigate what is the effect of the shift in structure of public debt on the cost dynamics of public debt service. From empirical point of view the panel data regression of 22 chosen OECD countries in the period from 2000 to 2015 is used and done by several estimation techniques used (OLS, one-way and two-way fixed effect model and GMM). It's found that the shift from the short-term to the long-term debt obligations is positively correlated with the higher cost dynamics of public debt service. The shift from domestic to foreign creditors seems to have similar impact but not as unambiguous as the previous one is.

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What this paper is about

It is possible that a shift in the public debt structure can influence economic growth of advanced economies. The main channel to recognize this effect seems to be through the cost of public debt service. Hence, the aim of this contribution is to investigate what is the effect of the shift in structure of public debt on the cost dynamics of public debt service. From empirical point of view the panel data regression of 22 chosen OECD countries in the period from 2000 to 2015 is used and done by several estimation techniques used (OLS, one-way and two-way fixed effect model and GMM). It's found that the shift from the short-term to the long-term debt obligations is positively correlated with the higher cost dynamics of public debt service. The shift from domestic to foreign creditors seems to have similar impact but not as unambiguous as the previous one is.

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Available abstract

It is possible that a shift in the public debt structure can influence economic growth of advanced economies. The main channel to recognize this effect seems to be through the cost of public debt service. Hence, the aim of this contribution is to investigate what is the effect of the shift in structure of public debt on the cost dynamics of public debt service. From empirical point of view the panel data regression of 22 chosen OECD countries in the period from 2000 to 2015 is used and done by several estimation techniques used (OLS, one-way and two-way fixed effect model and GMM). It's found that the shift from the short-term to the long-term debt obligations is positively correlated with the higher cost dynamics of public debt service. The shift from domestic to foreign creditors seems to have similar impact but not as unambiguous as the previous one is.

Key concepts: Debt, External debt, Debt service coverage ratio, Internal debt, Debt-to-GDP ratio, Debt levels and flows, Panel data, Monetary economics

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