IFES 2014: Crop and Livestock Price Prospects for 2015

Corn prices moved to the lowest level in five years in October 2014. Prices declined under the weight of back-to-back record large U.S. crops and plateauing consumption of corn used for ethanol production. Feed and residual use of corn will get a boost from low feed prices and increasing livestock numbers, but U.S. corn exports face more competition than a year ago. The record 2014 crop and lower prices are expected to result in only a small increase in total consumption during the 2014-15 marketing year. Early expectations were for year-ending stocks to be at a 10-year high of two billion bushels. Some reduction in U.S corn acreage in 2015, coupled with a return to a trend yield, would result in a much smaller crop and a reduction in stocks during the 2015-16 marketing year. After averaging close to $3.50 during the 2014-15 marketing year, corn prices are expected to rebound to the low-to-md $4.00 level next year if production declines as expected.