The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2006 to 2015

This volume is one of a series of reports on the state of the budget and the economy that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issues each year. It satisfies the requirement of section 202(e) of the Congressional Budget Act of 1974 for CBO to submit to the Committees on the Budget periodic reports about fiscal policy and to provide baseline projections of the federal budget. In accordance with CBO's mandate to provide impartial analysis, the report makes no recommendations. Chapter 1, The Budget Outlook, provides a review of 2004 followed by discussions on The Concept Behind CBO's Baseline Projections, Uncertainty and Budget Projections, The Long-Term Outlook, Changes to the Budget Outlook Since September 2004, The Outlook for Federal Debt, and Trust Funds and the Budget. Chapter 2, The Economic Outlook, presents an Overview of CBO's Two-Year Forecast followed by discussions of The Importance of Productivity Growth for Economic and Budget Projections, The Outlook for 2005 and 2006, The Economic Outlook through 2015, Taxable Income, Changes in CBO's Outlook Since September 2004, and A Comparison of Forecasts. Chapter 3, The Spending Outlook, focuses on Mandatory Spending, Discretionary Spending, and Net Interest. Chapter 4, The Revenue Outlook, examine Revenues by Source, Revenue Projections in Detail, Uncertainty in the Revenue Baseline, Revisions to CBO's September 2004 Revenue Projections,and The Effects of Expiring Tax Provisions. Appendixes A through F focus on the following: How Changes in Economic Assumptions Can Affect Budget Projections, The Treatment of Federal Receipts and Expenditures in the National Income and Product Accounts, Budget Resolution Targets and Actual Outcomes, Forecasting Employers' Contributions to Defined-Benefit Pensions and Health Insurance, CBO's Economic Projections for 2005 to 2015, Historical Budget Data, and Contributors to the Revenue and Spending Projections. A glossary completes the report.