Energy supply/demand trends and forecasts: implications for a sustainable energy future in Canada and the world

An analysis of world and North American energy production and consumption over the past several decades indicates strong growth. Even with the growth of "zero emission" nuclear and large hydro, hydrocarbons (oil, gas and coal) made up more than 85% of world primary energy consumption in 2002, and are forecast to make up more than 85% of a greatly expanded energy demand by 2025. Energy demand in the developing world is forecast by the Energy Information Administration to grow by 94% through 2025, when this region will account for nearly half of the world's energy consumption. The question is, are these forecast growth rates sustainable, given the magnitude and distribution of the world's remaining energy reserves, and what are some of the political and social ramifications of maintaining this rate of consumption? Natural gas in North America is of particular concern, as it is largely a Continental market (with the exception of about 1 % LNG at present) and demand, particularly for electricity generation, is forecast to grow dramatically over the next two decades. This presentation focuses on the "Big Picture" and how Canada fits into it, as well as what must be considered going forward to assure a sustainable energy future.