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2018•Unpublished venueRequires access

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in a Swedish context

Alexandra Rojas Mullor

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Abstract

This paper investigates if inflation dynamics in Sweden can be properly modelled by the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). Four versions of the NKPC are tested on quarterly data between 1995 and 2016 using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) as the estimation method. The following versions are empirically tested: the NKPC with output gap, the NKPC with marginal costs, the hybrid NKPC and the sectoral hybrid NKPC. None of the estimated models yields empirical results that are in accordance with the theoretical predictions, implying weak support of the NKPC as an adequate model for Swedish inflation dynamics.

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What this paper is about

This paper investigates if inflation dynamics in Sweden can be properly modelled by the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). Four versions of the NKPC are tested on quarterly data between 1995 and 2016 using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) as the estimation method. The following versions are empirically tested: the NKPC with output gap, the NKPC with marginal costs, the hybrid NKPC and the sectoral hybrid NKPC. None of the estimated models yields empirical results that are in accordance with the theoretical predictions, implying weak support of the NKPC as an adequate model for Swedish inflation dynamics.

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Available abstract

This paper investigates if inflation dynamics in Sweden can be properly modelled by the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). Four versions of the NKPC are tested on quarterly data between 1995 and 2016 using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) as the estimation method. The following versions are empirically tested: the NKPC with output gap, the NKPC with marginal costs, the hybrid NKPC and the sectoral hybrid NKPC. None of the estimated models yields empirical results that are in accordance with the theoretical predictions, implying weak support of the NKPC as an adequate model for Swedish inflation dynamics.

Key concepts: Phillips curve, New Keynesian economics, Economics, Inflation (cosmology), Context (archaeology), Output gap, Keynesian economics, Econometrics

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