Atlantic Water Heat Transport Variability in the 20th Century Arctic Ocean From a Global Ocean Model and Observations

Abstract Northward ocean heat transport and its variability influence the Arctic sea ice cover, contribute to surface warming or cooling, or simply warm or cool the Arctic Ocean interior. A simulation with the forced global ocean model NorESM20CR, aided by hydrographic observations since 1900, show large decadal fluctuations in the ocean heat transport, with the largest variations in the Atlantic sector. The simulated net poleward ocean heat transport over the last century is about 68 TW, and 88% of this occurs in the Barents Sea Opening (45 TW) and the Fram Strait (15 TW). Typical variations are 40 TW over time scales between 5 and 10 years, related to thermohaline and wind stress forcings. The mean heat transport in the Davis Strait is about 10 TW, and less than 5 TW flows north in the Bering Strait. The core temperature of the Atlantic Water (AW) entering the Arctic Ocean has increased in recent decades, consistent with an ongoing expansion of the Atlantic domain (Atlantification), but earlier warm events are also documented. The temperature of the northward‐flowing AW thus plays a vital role, with decadal variations of around 0.5 ∘ C. The Nordic Seas atmosphere contributes with thermodynamic forcing, dampening the advected heat anomalies. In the Barents Sea, variations in the inflow volume flux dominate, while variations in temperature dominate the heat transport in the Fram Strait. There are significant trends over recent decades, also dominated by the Barents Sea that presently has 1 Sv higher volume transport and +1.0 ∘ C warmer AW than the long‐term mean.