Numerical Analysis of Sensitivity of Structure of the Stratification in Lake Biwa, Japan by Changing Meteorological Elements

Climatic factors such as air temperature and wind speed can affect the structure of stratification in Lake Biwa. In general, the rise in air temperature and the decrease in wind speed weaken the vertical mixing and strengthen the structure of the stratification, which interrupts the transport of the substances. However, how much the change of each climate element can influence the structure of the stratification is not clarified. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the effects of each element on the stratification quantitatively. In the present study, we investigated the effect of the change in air temperature and wind speed on the seasonal change of stratification in Lake Biwa by using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. Numerical simulations were carried out for a baseline case using realistic meteorological data from 2007 to 2012 and hypothetical cases using meteorological data with modified air temperature or wind speed for sensitivity analysis. The analysis showed that the increase and decrease in air temperature changed the vertical water temperature uniformly in almost all layers. Thus, the strength of the stratification is hardly changed. The increase and decrease in wind speed, however, altered the water temperature near the surface of the lake, so that it significantly influenced the stratification. The increase in wind speed made the water parcels of the surface layer well mixed, and the decrease in wind speed made the mixed layer thinner.