2018•Brookings Papers on Economic ActivityOpen access

The Federal Reserve Is Not Very Constrained by the Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates

Eric T. Swanson

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Abstract

I survey the literature on monetary policy at the zero lower bound (ZLB) and effective lower bound (ELB) to make three main points: First, the Federal Reserve's forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases are effective monetary policy tools at the Z/ELB.Second, during the 2008-15 U.S. ZLB period, the Fed was not very constrained in its ability to influence medium-and longer-term interest rates and the economy.Third, the risks of the Fed being significantly constrained by the ELB in the future are typically greatly overstated.I conclude that the Federal Reserve is not very constrained by the lower bound on nominal interest rates.

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What this paper is about

I survey the literature on monetary policy at the zero lower bound (ZLB) and effective lower bound (ELB) to make three main points: First, the Federal Reserve's forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases are effective monetary policy tools at the Z/ELB.Second, during the 2008-15 U.S. ZLB period, the Fed was not very constrained in its ability to influence medium-and longer-term interest rates and the economy.Third, the risks of the Fed being significantly constrained by the ELB in the future are typically greatly overstated.I conclude that the Federal Reserve is not very constrained by the lower bound on nominal interest rates.

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Available abstract

I survey the literature on monetary policy at the zero lower bound (ZLB) and effective lower bound (ELB) to make three main points: First, the Federal Reserve's forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases are effective monetary policy tools at the Z/ELB.Second, during the 2008-15 U.S. ZLB period, the Fed was not very constrained in its ability to influence medium-and longer-term interest rates and the economy.Third, the risks of the Fed being significantly constrained by the ELB in the future are typically greatly overstated.I conclude that the Federal Reserve is not very constrained by the lower bound on nominal interest rates.

Key concepts: Zero lower bound, Economics, Monetary policy, Nominal interest rate, Interest rate, Forward guidance, Monetary economics, Quantitative easing

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