Relationships among Rates of Attrition in Training and Subsequent Attrition in Line Units

This research was conducted as an in-house effort by the ARI Field Unit at Fort Benning, Georgia. The emphasis in the research on the effects of management policies on enlisted attrition is a relatively new approach to research on the Army's manpower problems. Most attrition research has focused on identification of individual characteristics related to attrition which can then be used to select personnel who will not drop out. The research approach reported here may be more relevant to the current manpower environment where there is only a small pool of people from which to select and success of the Army's mission depends on retaining those people who are recruited. The rate of attrition in Infantry Advanced Individual Training (AIT) was strongly influenced by command policy and a sharp drop in training attrition occurred following a command change in 1977. Monthly attrition rates during BCT (Basic Combat Training) and AIT(Advanced Individual Training) and in the first 90 days following successful graduation from Infantry AIT were intercorrelated over the period April 1976 through December 1978. The 'constant attrition hypothesis', i. e., early attrition reduces later attrition, was not supported with data from all soldiers who were scheduled for Infantry training. In fact, attrition rates from BCT, AIT and line units were positively correlated. Analysis of these changes suggests that some as yet unspecified factor that simultaneously influenced attrition in BCT, AIT and line units outweighed training cohort factors in determining these changes in attrition.