Age structure transition of China’s population: Regional differentials and implications for development policy

Increasing attention is being paid to the rapid change of population age structures in developing countries, even though population growth has long been considered as the main issue in those countries. As a result of the consistent decline in fertility over the last two to three decades, the working age population currently claims a large proportion of the total age structure. Soon, however, rapid growth of the elderly population will be one of the most conspicuous characteristics of population change in the developing countries. It is estimated that currently the total world population increases 1.7 per cent annually, whereas the portions of the population aged 55+ years and 65+ years increase 2.2 per cent and 2.8 per cent, respectively. Eighty per cent of the increase in the 55-t population occurs in the developing countries. In the next three decades, the population aged 65 and over in the developing countries will be twice as great as in the developed countries (Kinsella, 1988).