Forward collision warning system impact

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this research is to use historical crash data to evaluate the potential benefits of both high- and low-speed automatic emergency braking (AEB) with forward collision warning (FCW) systems. METHODS: Crash data from the NHTSA's NASS-General Estimates System (GES) and Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) databases were categorized to classify crashes by the speed environment, as well as to identify cases where FCW systems would be applicable. RESULTS: Though only about 19% of reported crashes occur in environments with speeds greater than 45 mph, approximately 32% of all serious or fatal crashes occur in environments with speeds greater than 45 mph. The percentage of crashes where FCW systems would be relevant has remained remarkably constant, varying between about 21 and 26% from 2002 to 2015. In 2-vehicle fatal crashes where one rear-ends the other, the fatality rates are actually higher in the struck vehicle (33%) than the striking vehicle (26%). The disparity is even greater when considering size-class differences, such as when a light truck rear-ends a passenger car (15 vs. 42% fatality rates, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: NHTSA and the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) proposed the Automatic Emergency Braking Initiative in 2015, which is intended to make AEB (also called crash-imminent braking) with FCW systems standard on nearly all new cars by September 2022. Twenty automakers representing 99% of the U.S. auto market voluntarily committed to the initiative. Though the commitment to safety is laudable, the AEB component of the agreement only covers low-speed AEB systems, with the test requirements set to 24 mph or optionally as low as 12 mph. The test requirements for the FCW component of the agreement include 2 tests that begin at 45 mph. Only 21% of relevant serious injury or fatal accidents occur in environments at speeds under 24 mph, whereas about 22% of serious or fatal crashes occur in environments with speeds greater than 45 mph. This means that the AEB with FCW systems as agreed upon will cover only 21% of serious or fatal crashes and will not cover 22% of serious or fatal crashes. Because these systems are protective not only for the occupants of the vehicle where they are installed but also other vehicles on the roads, the data indicate that these systems should be a standard feature on all cars for high-speed as well as low-speed environments for the greatest social benefit.