Explaining First-Year Seedling Survival from Quality Distributions of Bare-Root Seedlings and Microsites in Industrial Plantations

First-year seedling survival impacts all subsequent management planning in plantation forestry. Descriptive statistics of first-year seedling survival data from the Louisiana Department of Agriculture and Forestry (LDAF) indicated that survival success reaches a plateau at between 79% - 85% under normal weather conditions. We provide an explanation for this plateau based on an analysis of seedling and microsite qualities involved in operational pine plantations by: 1) using a conceptual model demonstrating how variation in seedling quality and microsite quality interact to determine plantation survival, 2) presenting an example to characterize quality distributions of seedling and microsite qualities, and 3) comparing model outcomes based on measured distributions to realistic values of first-year survival. Simulation results indicated that consistent survival could result from random pairings of initial seedling and site quality distributions. LDAF data analysis indicated that 72% of seedlings were associated with the most frequent quality class that comprised seedlings with stem caliper between 3.2 to 4.7 mm and average stem height and volume of 25.75 cm and 3.43 cm3, respectively. Similarly, assessment of microsites at planting sites in Southeast Louisiana indicated that 48% of planted seedlings were associated with the most frequent microsite quality class which supported first-year height increment between 9 to 29 cm. Modelling of current operational practice indicated that using seedlings with larger caliper size would increase first year survival, but would result in higher establishment costs. The conceptual model could be modified to for use in other regions regardless of species types involved.