El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Teleconnection and Possibilities for Drought Forecasting in Dhaka

The aim of this research is to find out an effective method for forecasting drought in Dhaka using El Nino-Southern Oscillation index. Long lead drought forecasting method will be beneficial as timely information about the onset, extent, intensity, and duration of drought can limit losses to economy and environment. With this view, the strength of teleconnection between drought indices SPI, SPEI, and ENSO index (sea surface temperature) was assessed by performing correlation analysis, which shows a strong correlation between average SPI, SPEI values of month October-November-December (OND), and OND SST of NINO 3.4 region for the period 1994–2014. Then discriminant analysis has been performed to evaluate the possibilities of a long lead drought forecast and it was found that droughts are more likely associated with El Nino which is the warm episode of ENSO whereas during La Nina probability of occurrence of wet event increases.