1977•Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics)Requires access

On the Order Determination of ARIMA Models

Tohru Ozaki

Open publisher page 104 citations

Abstract

In this paper the difficulty in deciding the order of an arima (autoregressive integrated moving average) model is discussed. The possibility of removing this difficulty by using the maice (minimum aic estimation) procedure, which selects a model by using Akaike's Information Criterion (aic), is checked with the numerical examples treated in the book by Box and Jenkins.

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What this paper is about

In this paper the difficulty in deciding the order of an arima (autoregressive integrated moving average) model is discussed. The possibility of removing this difficulty by using the maice (minimum aic estimation) procedure, which selects a model by using Akaike's Information Criterion (aic), is checked with the numerical examples treated in the book by Box and Jenkins.

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Available abstract

In this paper the difficulty in deciding the order of an arima (autoregressive integrated moving average) model is discussed. The possibility of removing this difficulty by using the maice (minimum aic estimation) procedure, which selects a model by using Akaike's Information Criterion (aic), is checked with the numerical examples treated in the book by Box and Jenkins.

Key concepts: Akaike information criterion, Autoregressive integrated moving average, Box–Jenkins, Autoregressive model, Statistics, Mathematics, Order (exchange), Bayesian information criterion

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