On the Order Determination of ARIMA Models
Tohru Ozaki
Abstract
Tohru Ozaki
Abstract
In this paper the difficulty in deciding the order of an arima (autoregressive integrated moving average) model is discussed. The possibility of removing this difficulty by using the maice (minimum aic estimation) procedure, which selects a model by using Akaike's Information Criterion (aic), is checked with the numerical examples treated in the book by Box and Jenkins.
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In this paper the difficulty in deciding the order of an arima (autoregressive integrated moving average) model is discussed. The possibility of removing this difficulty by using the maice (minimum aic estimation) procedure, which selects a model by using Akaike's Information Criterion (aic), is checked with the numerical examples treated in the book by Box and Jenkins.
Key concepts: Akaike information criterion, Autoregressive integrated moving average, Box–Jenkins, Autoregressive model, Statistics, Mathematics, Order (exchange), Bayesian information criterion