Does symbolic and non-symbolic estimation ability predict mathematical achievement across primary school years?

The article presents the results of a longitudinal study of the association between number sense and success in learning mathematics in primary school. We analysed the data of 133 schoolchildren on two aspects of number sense related to the symbolic and non-symbolic magnitude estimation abilities and academic success in mathematics in third and fourth grade. The average age of schoolchildren during the first assessment was 9.82 ± 0.30; during the second assessment – 10.82 ± 0.30. For the analysis of interrelations, the cross-lagged method was used. It was shown that the reciprocal model best describes the data suggesting cross-lagged associations between number sense and the success in learning mathematics at primary school age. The results of the longitudinal analysis revealed differences in the relationship between the success in learning mathematics with the two aspects of number sense: academic success in third grade only predicted the indicator of number sense associated with the symbolic magnitude estimation ability in fourth grade. The differences in the age dynamics of the two aspects of number sense in primary school are also revealed: the indicator of number sense associated with the non-symbolic magnitude estimation ability was the most stable over time.