The determinants of urban sprawl: theory and estimation

We argue that a well-articulated theory, by which we mean a set of structural equations equal in number to the endogenous variables and from which testable hypotheses may be drawn, should be the basis for any effort to estimate the determinants of urban sprawl. Without such a theory, it is not possible to know why a particular determinant ‘works’ to explain a particular definition of urban sprawl, nor is it possible to know whether any particular policy to combat sprawl, however defined, will be successful in achieving that objective without also creating other, possibly adverse, effects. To illustrate our argument, we contrast Burchfield, et al. [2006. Causes of sprawl: A portrait from space. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121, 587–633], which is not based on a well-articulated theory, with the urban monocentric model [Brueckner, 1987. The structure of urban equilibrium: A unified treatment of the Muth-Mills model. In E. S. Mills (Ed.), Handbook of regional and urban economics, Vol. II, “urban economics” (pp. 821–845). Amsterdam: Elsevier], which is a well-articulated theory.