Time Series Analysis of Total Retail Sales of Social Consumer Goods in Yunnan Province

时间序列分析描述了历史数据随时间变化的规律，并用于预测经济变量。在市场经济中，政府对市场变化的即时反应是各国经济工作的重点。政府在尽量减少对市场干预的同时，尽可能的保证经济的平稳发展，由于社会消费品零售总额反应了市场运行中的一个重要环节——消费，尤其是目前市场上的消费需求不足现象，使经济发展受到外需与内需两方的困扰。因此对于社会消费品零售总额预测中的研究一直具有积极意义。本文采用云南省1950年至2015年的社会消费品零售总额为研究对象，采用R软件进行ARIMA模型的拟合，并对拟合模型进行评测，同时利用模型进行预测，并从国家经济、政策和社会消费品零售市场发展等方面对社会消费品零售总额变化规律及未来走势进行分析。 Time series analysis describes the rule of historical data over time and is used to predict economic variables. In a market economy, the immediate response of the government to market changes is the focus of economic work. By Yunnan Province from 1950 to 2015, the total retail sales of social consumer goods as the research object, using R software to make ARIMA model fitting, and the fitting model evaluation, at the same time, using the model to forecast, and from the national economy, policy, and retail market development, change rule of total retail sales of social consumer goods and future trend are analyzed.