Breast cancer incidence as a function of the number of previous mammograms: analysis of the NHS screening programme

Abstract The discrepancy between the protective effect of early surgery of breast cancer and the poor benefits of mammography screening programs in the long term can be explained if mammography induces breast cancer at a much higher rate than anticipated. Mammography screening is associated in most countries with a higher incidence of breast cancer, attributed to overdiagnosis. X-ray-induced cancers can be distinguished from overdiagnosed cancers by the fact that their incidence depends on the number of previous mammograms, whereas overdiagnosis solely depends on the last screening mammogram, leading to diagnosis. The unbiased relationship between the number of mammograms and breast cancer incidence was evaluated from the data of the NHS Breast Cancer screening programme in women aged from 50 to 64 years in the United Kingdom. The delay between mammography and increased breast cancer incidence was confirmed from the data of the “Age” trial, a randomized trial of annual screening starting at age 40 in the UK. In women aged 50-64 attending screening at the NHS Breast Cancer programme, in situ breast cancer incidence increased linearly from 1993 to 2005 as a function of the number of mammograms. Incidence did not increase anymore after 2005 when the number of mammograms and the delay after screening was stable. Invasive breast cancer incidence increased more specifically in the 60-69 age group. The risk of breast cancer almost doubled after 15 years of screening. Additional cancers began to occur less than 6 years after mammography. These results are evidence that X-ray-induced carcinogenesis, rather than overdiagnosis, is the cause of the increase in breast cancer incidence.