Behind the Power Curve: The Regular Air Force Pilots Shortages Effect on Air National Guard Fighter Squadrons

Abstract : The Active Component (AC) of the Air Force is aggressively examining solutions to its fighter pilot shortage, a deficit currently estimated at approximately 500 pilots and growing. The consequences are significant shortfalls in test positions, initial training instructor pilots, and staff positions. While many solutions have been proposed, further information needs to be garnered surrounding how these alternatives may impact the Air National Guard (ANG). This research seeks to examine the first and second order effects of insufficient numbers of AC pilots on ANG fighter squadron aircrew management dynamics. In the fiscal and political climate of sustaining todays Air Force, substantial funding increases or fundamental changes to the ANG component are unlikely. It is then appropriate to ask, what happens to ANG fighter squadrons readiness when an increased number of AC fighter pilots may be joining the ANG or a decreased number of fighter pilots may be available to affiliate? The scenario-planning framework is used to examine the required elements that make up the fighter force enterprise, followed by comparative examples that illustrate logical outcomes. Nearly all the current intellectual content on the subject is oriented toward problem identification tied to studies of alternatives and effects on regular Air Force (RegAF) personnel. The aim of this research is to analyze the potential benefits or detriments of the current RegAF pilot shortage to ANG manning.