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A More Peaceful World? Regional Conflict Trends and U.S. Defense Planning

Stephen Watts, Bryan Frederick, Jennifer Kavanagh, Angela O’Mahony, Thomas S. Szayna, Matthew Lane, Alexander Stephenson, Colin G. Clarke

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Abstract

This report analyzes trends in violent conflict and their implications for defense planning. It presents models that estimate the incidence of violent conflict both within and between countries and projects conflict trends to 2040 under different scenarios. The report concludes that conflict is likely to gradually decline in most regions in most plausible futures, while highlighting early warning indicators of potential increases in conflict.

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What this paper is about

This report analyzes trends in violent conflict and their implications for defense planning. It presents models that estimate the incidence of violent conflict both within and between countries and projects conflict trends to 2040 under different scenarios. The report concludes that conflict is likely to gradually decline in most regions in most plausible futures, while highlighting early warning indicators of potential increases in conflict.

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OpenAlex reports 9 citations for this work. Citation counts describe recorded attention and do not establish research quality.

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Available abstract

This report analyzes trends in violent conflict and their implications for defense planning. It presents models that estimate the incidence of violent conflict both within and between countries and projects conflict trends to 2040 under different scenarios. The report concludes that conflict is likely to gradually decline in most regions in most plausible futures, while highlighting early warning indicators of potential increases in conflict.

Key concepts: Futures contract, International conflict, Political science, Warning system, Armed conflict, Development economics, Geography, Politics

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