Refugee crisis in MENA : meeting the development challenge

The recovery in global activity anticipated in the April MENA Economic Monitor is on track. The global economy is projected to grow by 2.7 percent in 2017 and 2.9 percent in 2018–19. The uptick in global growth reflects strong domestic demand and exports. Industrial production and trade are picking up, strengthening confidence. The recovery is led by a pickup in growth in the Euro Area, China, Russia, and Brazil. Eastern Europe and Central Asia continue to benefit from the recovery in the Euro Area. After years of slow growth, economic activity in oil exporters is starting to improve because the oil market has reached some stability, although at low prices. In oil-importing countries, activity continues to be robust. Inflation has remained low. However, as actual growth continues to exceed potential growth, increasing inflation and closing output gaps could lead to the prospects of less accommodative monetary policy, which could dampen global growth going forward.