Towards improved performance of operational wave models at Australian coast

This presentation covers four ways to improve further the Bureau of Meteorology wave model performance: increasing the global wave model resolution to match improvements in the resolution of the atmospheric forcing; improving wave model physics by using a new physical spectral source term package; introducing ensemble probabilistic forecasts and developing operational consensus forecasting system, which optimally combines the direct model outputs from a number of wave models around the world and produces wave forecasts for the selected wave buoy sites around the Australian Coast. The wave OCF system produces forecasts of significant wave height, peak wave period, wind direction and wind speed up to 5 days ahead. Wave OCF is a simpler method that tends to outperform more expensive computational methods. The combined forecast has proved often to be best forecast for the Australian coast.