Quick Release of Internal Water Storage in a Glacier Leads to Underestimation of the Hazard Potential of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From Lake Merzbacher in Central Tian Shan Mountains

Abstract Glacial meltwater and ice calving contribute to the flood volume of glacial lakes such as Lake Merzbacher in the Tian Shan Mountains of central Asia. In this study, we simulated the lake's volume by constructing an empirical relationship between the area of Lake Merzbacher, determined from satellite images, and the lake's water storage, derived from digital elevation models. Results showed that the lake water supply rate before Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) generally agreed well with those during the GLOFs from 2009 to 2012 but not in 2008 and 2015. Furthermore, we found that the combination of glacial meltwater and ice calving is not enough to fully explain the supply rate during GLOFs in 1996 and 1999, suggesting other factors affect the supply rate during GLOFs as well. To examine this further, we compared the water supply rate before and during GLOF events in 1999 and 2008. We inferred that quickly released short‐term and intermediate‐term water storage by glaciers have likely contributed to both flood events in those years. This study highlights the need to improve our understanding of the supply component of outburst floods, such as irregularly released stored water may lead to GLOF events with generally three different types: case I (singular event‐triggered englacial water release), case II (glacier melt due to temperature changes), and case III (englacial water release mixed with glacier melt).