The impact of investment in Public Private Partnerships on Public, Private investment and GDP in Portugal

In this paper we test the macroeconomic impact of investment in public-private partnerships, public and private investment in Portugal through a VAR model with four variables: public and private investment, PPP investment and GDP, to the period 1998- 2013. An assessment of crowding-in / crowding-out effects of investment in PPPs is carried out. We also proceed to the calculation of macroeconomic rates of return on investment in PPP, public investment and private investment. The results show that public and private investment has a positive effect in GDP while investment in PPP reduces the Portuguese GDP. In what concerns to crowding-in/crowding-out effects an increase in PPP investment crowds-out both in private and public investment, while public investment presents a crowding-in effect both in private investment and in investment in PPP; and private investment shows the same crowding-in effect both in investment in PPP and in public investment.