An Analysis of Supply and Demand Strategy of Bioethanol Using an Agent-based Global Energy Model

Bioethanol is an important transportation fuel but the resource is finite and unevenly distributed in the world. The purpose of this study is to evaluate strategies for export and import regions in the international bioethanol market. For that purpose, simulation studies using a global energy model to which an agent technique was applied were conducted, and the following results were obtained. (1) If bioethanol importer regions adopt a strategy of a rigid mixture ratio of bioethanol to gasoline-type fuel, and if only a dominant bioethanol exporter region can control the price premium of exported bioethanol in the case of high cost cellulosic ethanol production, the international bioethanol price would converge at a high price. This is because of the high production cost of the cellulosic bioethanol and the high price premium of the exported ethanol. (2) If the bioethanol importer regions adopt a strategy of flexible mixture ratios, the regions could avoid the high price premium. (3) If cellulosic bioethanol is commercialized at a low cost, approximately the cost of starch biomass, the simulation results converge at high mixture ratios and low price premiums. In this case, bioethanol could be one of the major transportation fuels in the future.