Different Interpretations of Chance by Brazilian Adults.

This paper investigates meanings of word in adult education. A questionnaire for assessing level of probability understanding was administered to students in three countries--Canada, Brazil, and Hungary. Of 18 questions on questionnaire, four concerned language use. This paper reports on data relative to one of those questions. Students were asked to write a sentence ending with t is something that happens by chance. The analysis found that students may have very unorthodox uses for word and that until it is determined what students actually think chance is, there is little chance of influencing them toward using probability theory. (MVL) Reproductions supplied by EDRS are best that can be made from original document. PERMISSION TO REPRODUCE AND DISSEMINATE THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN GRANTED BY TO THE EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION CENTER (ERIC) U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION Office of EducationatRemarch and Improvement EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION CENTER (ERIC) Cgthigslocument has been reproduced as received from person or organization originating it. 0 Minor changes have been made to improve reproduction quality. Points of view or opinions stated in this document do not necessarily represent official OERI position or policy. Different Interpretations of Chance by Brazilian Adults Jose Elias Damasceno Universidade de Brasilia, Brazil Ana Lucia Braz Dias Universidade Catolica de Brasilia, Brazil Editor's Note: This paper reports on an important line of research that was very dear to heart and mind of Dr. Jose Elias Damasceno. His questioning and plans for future research were suddenly stopped when, after a brief illness, he died on August 24, 2000, at age of 39. At his burial service his scientific spirit was highly praised by his colleagues, who are honored to have known him and deeply miss him. It is somewhat of a challenge that this paper will be written in English. Why? Because English word chance has at least two very distinct meanings. And while if we were using another language we might have two different words available, one for each of two different meanings we may wish to communicate, in English we will have to use word chance indiscriminately. This certainly is not a limitation, for we are sure that reader is able to distinguish between two meanings, even though he or she may be used to seeing them denoted by same word chance, sometimes even in same paragraph, as below: Chance opens door to luck. When are against success and it nevertheless occurs, you are lucky. Conversely, if favor success and nevertheless it fails to ensue, you are unlucky. (Rescher, 1995, p. 42) In first sentence of quote, word is used to denote something that can be thought of as having real and objective status. In sentences that follow, the chances are the odds, or measurements of probability. Chance in title of this article is intended to have first meaning mentioned above: not a measure of probability, as in the chance that flip of a coin yields tails is V2, but a representation of some distinct creative or administrative agency (Venn, 1888, p. 235), same as acaso in Portuguese, or hazard in French. But why bother with such a highly philosophical concept, one that touches at centuries-old questions such as those about free will versus predetermination or about appropriateness of assumptions we make about causality and indeterminism in science? Our decision to pursue this investigation arose from confluence of several of our research interests: We are convinced of influence of students' cultural backgrounds in their learning of mathematics. -... People's beliefs and worldviews, especially in case of adults, are frames on which they are going to (C.), construct new mathematical concepts. And one aspect of culture is particularly important: language in N which students think and receive new information. Do We understand that Comprehension of concept of chance, as well as learning of probability, should be a goal for our students. Although chance and probability are conceptually independent concepts C3 (von Plato, 1982), concept of chance permeates probabilistic thought and therefore deserves I lj attention of educators. vi