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2004•Australian Commodities: Forecasts and IssuesRequires access

Sugar Outlook to 2008-09: Low Prices to Continue for the Medium Term

Richard Perry, Andrew Jacenko, Ian Shaw

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Abstract

The world indicator raw sugar price is forecast to rise to average around US7.5c/lb in 2004-05. Leading exporter Brazil will remain the dominant influence on future world sugar supplies and prices. Returns in the Australian industry are very low because of low world prices combined with exchange rate factors. Rising protectionism in the Russian Federation and continued resistance to reforming the highly distorted sugar markets of the European Union and the United States will be negative for world prices over the medium term.

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The world indicator raw sugar price is forecast to rise to average around US7.5c/lb in 2004-05. Leading exporter Brazil will remain the dominant influence on future world sugar supplies and prices. Returns in the Australian industry are very low because of low world prices combined with exchange rate factors. Rising protectionism in the Russian Federation and continued resistance to reforming the highly distorted sugar markets of the European Union and the United States will be negative for world prices over the medium term.

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Available abstract

The world indicator raw sugar price is forecast to rise to average around US7.5c/lb in 2004-05. Leading exporter Brazil will remain the dominant influence on future world sugar supplies and prices. Returns in the Australian industry are very low because of low world prices combined with exchange rate factors. Rising protectionism in the Russian Federation and continued resistance to reforming the highly distorted sugar markets of the European Union and the United States will be negative for world prices over the medium term.

Key concepts: Protectionism, Sugar, World trade, Economics, Medium term, International economics, Term (time), World market

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