Analyses on soybean yield in China based on prediction of yield potential

The maximum yield growth range of per unit soybean yield in China is analyzed from three aspects including photosynthesis production potential of soybean, the changing trend of per unit soybean in the previous years and potential of distribution area of agricultural crops. In the paper, the potential of using light, the external potential of historical yield evolution trend and AEZ (agricultural ecological zone) are applied to calculate the per unit yield potential of Chinese soybean. The results show that the maximum growth range of per unit yield in different stages was different : before 1985, the growth range was 10%; before 1988, the growth range was 9%; before 1994, the growth range was 8%; before 1999, the growth range was 7% and before 2004, the growth range was 6%. Any variety of soybean and planting technology higher than above the growth range can only be promoted in restricted area or has the statistical error. The results are of reference significance to Chinese soybean production.