2017•International Journal of Sciences: Basic and Applied ResearchOpen access

Mathematical Modeling of the Transmission Dynamics of Ebola Virus Disease with control Strategies

Stephen Edward, Eva Lusekelo, Dominick Michael Ndidi, Emanuel Simanjilo

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Abstract

In this paper we develop a deterministic compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the community. Our model incorporates education campaigns, quarantine, safe burial and therapeutic treatment as control strategies to bring the disease to an end. We derived the effective reproductive number for the model, and proved the stability of equilibrium points. We performed numerical simulations of the model and our results show that all control measures under consideration have an effect of decreasing severity of the epidemic when constantly administered. Furthermore, we found that reducing the number of contacts with infectious individuals in the general population is the most effective intervention method for mitigating an EVD epidemic.

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What this paper is about

In this paper we develop a deterministic compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the community. Our model incorporates education campaigns, quarantine, safe burial and therapeutic treatment as control strategies to bring the disease to an end. We derived the effective reproductive number for the model, and proved the stability of equilibrium points. We performed numerical simulations of the model and our results show that all control measures under consideration have an effect of decreasing severity of the epidemic when constantly administered. Furthermore, we found that reducing the number of contacts with infectious individuals in the general population is the most effective intervention method for mitigating an EVD epidemic.

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Available abstract

In this paper we develop a deterministic compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the community. Our model incorporates education campaigns, quarantine, safe burial and therapeutic treatment as control strategies to bring the disease to an end. We derived the effective reproductive number for the model, and proved the stability of equilibrium points. We performed numerical simulations of the model and our results show that all control measures under consideration have an effect of decreasing severity of the epidemic when constantly administered. Furthermore, we found that reducing the number of contacts with infectious individuals in the general population is the most effective intervention method for mitigating an EVD epidemic.

Key concepts: Ebola virus, Basic reproduction number, Mathematical modelling of infectious disease, Quarantine, Infectious disease (medical specialty), Transmission (telecommunications), Disease, Population

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