2011Digitální knihovna Univerzity Pardubice (Univerzity Pardubice)Requires access

Oil prices and its dependence on oil reserves

Jiří Polách, Zuzana Virglerová

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Abstract

Oil is a strategic raw material with many uses, mainly as a source of energy. As such energy source nowadays it cannot be replaced efficiently. More often oil is a reason for wars and disputes. It is exhaustible source of energy, with reduction in time. Lower supply and growing price are thus interconnected. Article is trying to find \ndependence of oil price on its reserves and predict the possible price development in \nthe future, based on historical data about reserves and average oil prices. First, an oil production sector is analyzed, using SWOT analysis and analysis of offer and demand. On the side of offers there are countries named with biggest oil fields and than world supply as a whole. On the side of demand biggest oil users are defined and \ndevelopment of world needs for this raw material. Next, using Pearson correlation and \nSpearman ranks correlation coefficient a research was performed on dependence of \ntwo values (average oil price and oil supply during each year since 1980). Using \npolynomials a chart is build regarding future oil pricing, calculated from past \ndevelopment of quantities mentioned.

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Oil is a strategic raw material with many uses, mainly as a source of energy. As such energy source nowadays it cannot be replaced efficiently. More often oil is a reason for wars and disputes. It is exhaustible source of energy, with reduction in time. Lower supply and growing price are thus interconnected. Article is trying to find \ndependence of oil price on its reserves and predict the possible price development in \nthe future, based on historical data about reserves and average oil prices. First, an oil production sector is analyzed, using SWOT analysis and analysis of offer and demand. On the side of offers there are countries named with biggest oil fields and than world supply as a whole. On the side of demand biggest oil users are defined and \ndevelopment of world needs for this raw material. Next, using Pearson correlation and \nSpearman ranks correlation coefficient a research was performed on dependence of \ntwo values (average oil price and oil supply during each year since 1980). Using \npolynomials a chart is build regarding future oil pricing, calculated from past \ndevelopment of quantities mentioned.

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Available abstract

Oil is a strategic raw material with many uses, mainly as a source of energy. As such energy source nowadays it cannot be replaced efficiently. More often oil is a reason for wars and disputes. It is exhaustible source of energy, with reduction in time. Lower supply and growing price are thus interconnected. Article is trying to find \ndependence of oil price on its reserves and predict the possible price development in \nthe future, based on historical data about reserves and average oil prices. First, an oil production sector is analyzed, using SWOT analysis and analysis of offer and demand. On the side of offers there are countries named with biggest oil fields and than world supply as a whole. On the side of demand biggest oil users are defined and \ndevelopment of world needs for this raw material. Next, using Pearson correlation and \nSpearman ranks correlation coefficient a research was performed on dependence of \ntwo values (average oil price and oil supply during each year since 1980). Using \npolynomials a chart is build regarding future oil pricing, calculated from past \ndevelopment of quantities mentioned.

Key concepts: Oil reserves, Raw material, Economics, Crack spread, Oil price, Oil-storage trade, Production (economics), Supply and demand

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