2017•Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)Open access
Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Coastal flooding of Nile Delta, Egypt
Ibrahim A. Elshinnawy, Issam Edin Foad, I. M. Salama, Usama Hamed Issa
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Abstract
Many studies have investigated impacts of Sea Level Rise (SLR) on Nile Delta coastal zones in Egypt. Previous studies depended on areal surveying maps to develop digital elevation model (DEM) for Nile Delta coastal zones. Lacking field measurements and data to develop DEM that presents the actual situation of Nile Delta coastal zones, previous studies concluded that 20-30% of Nile Delta area will be inundated and lost if sea level rises by one meter. Accordingly, the current study aims to assess impacts of SLR on coastal inundation by utilizing field measurements of tide gages and land surveying data of 200 hydrographic profile across the coast line of Nile Delta. To achieve study objective, DEM maps through GIS process were developed by Coastal Research Institute (CoRI). After developing the DEM maps, two modules with three scenarios (CoRI, B1, and A1F1) were introduced in each module to assess SLR expected and its impacts on Nile Delta coastal zones. The two modules initiated are business as usual module (module 1) and actual situation module (module 2). Results indicate that for the first module (business as usual module), vulnerable areas to coastal flooding represent about 3.33%, 4.25%, and 11.75% of the total area of the Nile Delta for CoRI, B1, A1F1 scenarios respectively. On the other hand, considering the natural and man-made protection systems (module 2), vulnerable areas have percentages of 0.74, 0.97, and 3.01 of Nile Delta area for CoRI, B1, and A1F1 scenarios respectively. This means that less than 1.0% of the Nile Delta area will suffer from coastal flooding resulted from SLR expected by the end of the current century by CoRI and B1 scenarios and about 3% by A1F1 scenario by. The study recommends further detailed studies to quantify impacts of SLR on coastal physical systems, infrastructure, saltwater intrusion, water resources, wave climate and water current patterns, erosion/accretion patterns and socio-economic sectors.