Demographic transition and economic opportunity: the case of Jordan.

To take economic advantage of the extensive demographic transition expected to take place in Jordan over the coming 40 years that country’s decision makers need to create policies that appropriately deal with demographic change. To do so they need to be aware of the changes that have occurred in the past half-century due to improvements in nutrition health care and sanitation and to understand what more will occur in the future. The current study employs a sophisticated model of economic growth to examine the relationship between demographic change and economic development. It looks at how changes in mortality fertility and death rates as well as recent immigration will create a “population momentum.” The model predicts an average 5.6 percent increase in per capita gross domestic product over the period 1990-2015 an accelerated rate of economic growth due to different demographic growth rates of working-age and overall populations. To realize such growth however will require policies to further reduce fertility rates; to encourage investment in human capital job creation and openness to the global economy; and to provide for health care and pension needs of an increasingly elderly population. (authors)