Future Developments Regarding the Air Cargo Market - A Scenario Based Analysis

The air cargo market is highly sensitive to fluctuations in the global economy, changes in consumer behaviour as well as environmental regulations. Especially during the crisis in 2008 and 2009, the decline in freight tonne kilometres (FTK) exceeded that in world passenger traffic by far, i.e. a decrease by -24 per cent and -8 per cent to previous years, respectively. Stakeholders in the air cargo market are hence faced with high uncertainties and their business is prone to cost increases. However, industry forecasts predict a strong growth of FTK between 5.2 to 6.6 per cent per year over the next 20 years, possibly characterized by high volatility. Consequently, air cargo will have to become more robust against external influences in order to cope with these and other future challenges. These different aspects are major drivers for optimized intermodal transport solutions and improvements regarding the carbon footprint in order to attain cost reductions and hedge against uncertainties.This paper provides a scenario-based analysis of the air cargo sector which allows to identify robust trends and to anticipate risks arising from the market environment, potential competition or other influencing areas and factors. The applied scenario methodology is briefly described followed by an overview of relevant drivers and developments in the air cargo sector. Three alternative future scenarios outline different possible developments in the air cargo sector in terms of its modal share or the demand for air cargo goods until the year 2030. The analysis takes social, technological, environmental, political and economic changes into account. Finally, scenario-specific implications for air transport stakeholders such as (cargo) airlines, freight integrators, airports and manufacturers are derived.