Counterfactuals and Probability

Abstract In this book, the semantics of counterfactuals is studied by drawing on contexts of epistemic uncertainty. Probability plays a twofold role: the concept is used both to describe how counterfactuals are evaluated and to determine an objective goal guiding this evaluation process. It is shown in detail which problems one faces in trying to reconcile the behaviour of counterfactuals in contexts of uncertainty with a truth-conditional semantics for counterfactuals. To face the resulting difficulties, the prospects of adapting the restrictor view to counterfactuals is discussed. In response to problems with this approach, the book develops the idea of accounting for our ways of thinking in counterfactual terms by construing counterfactual thought as being concerned with arbitrary worlds at which the hypothetical assumption is satisfied. This account is subsequently applied to various pertinent issues in the debate about counterfactuals.