NATO Enlargement: Fears and Reality and the Ukraine

Neither the first nor the second round of NATO enlargement resulted in negative consequences predicted by the critics of this process. The Alliance did not lose its cohesion and credibility due to NATO enlargement and no dividing lines were drawn in Europe. The Russian approach to NATO in the period of Putins administration can be explained, in my opinion, by the Russian strategic culture rather than by NATOs enlargement. In other words, even without NATOs expansion, Russian political elites would need a rival they could be in opposition to. However, the previous success of the enlargement is not an automatic guarantee that the problems the critics warned against will not occur in the third or fourth round of NATOs expansion. In my opinion, the previous experience with the enlargement process shows the importance of at least a minimum preparedness of the candidate country and especially the public support for the NATO membership. Even though such an approach adopted by NATO was by and large successful, it should be applied also in the case of the Ukraine. The Alliance should support the preparations of this country for the membership but it should insist on meeting the requirements listed in the Study on NATO Enlargement and especially on the public support of the Ukrainians for the NATO membership.