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2015•Unpublished venueRequires access

Neglected issues in the EU Referendum Bill

Richard Rose

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Abstract

Will there be a turnout threshold making the referendum decisive? At the UK’s 2014 European Parliament (EP) election turnout was 35.6 percent and at the 2015 British general election it was 66.2 percent. Turnout at EU referendums across Europe normally falls between an EP and a national election. This implies a likely UK turnout of around 51 percent. If this occurred, the referendum majority would be little more than one-quarter of the British electorate.

About this research paper

What this paper is about

Will there be a turnout threshold making the referendum decisive? At the UK’s 2014 European Parliament (EP) election turnout was 35.6 percent and at the 2015 British general election it was 66.2 percent. Turnout at EU referendums across Europe normally falls between an EP and a national election. This implies a likely UK turnout of around 51 percent. If this occurred, the referendum majority would be little more than one-quarter of the British electorate.

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Available abstract

Will there be a turnout threshold making the referendum decisive? At the UK’s 2014 European Parliament (EP) election turnout was 35.6 percent and at the 2015 British general election it was 66.2 percent. Turnout at EU referendums across Europe normally falls between an EP and a national election. This implies a likely UK turnout of around 51 percent. If this occurred, the referendum majority would be little more than one-quarter of the British electorate.

Key concepts: Referendum, Turnout, Parliament, Political science, General election, Quarter (Canadian coin), Demographic economics, Voter turnout

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