2016•Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers Ser B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)Open access

A FLOOD RISK CURVE DEVELOPMENT USING CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL ON DURATION

Tomohiro Tanaka, Yasuto Tachikawa, Yutaka ICHIKAWA, Kazuaki YOROZU

Abstract

To design integrated flood risk management, flood risk assessment based on the economic damage is essential. In previous studies, the authors have developed a method to estimate a flood risk curve considering spatio-temporal distribution of rainfall by applying the Synthesis Probability Method (SPM) that estimates probability function of annual maximum flood peak discharge (AMF). Recently, the SPM was improved by introducing the relation between total rainfall and the duration time, and the estimated probability distribution of AMF with the improved SPM showed a better agreement with the probability distribution of observed AMF. This study extended the improved SPM to flood risk curve development and estimated a flood risk curve of the Ayabe city in the Yura-gawa River basin.

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Key concepts: Flood myth, 100-year flood, Probability distribution, Environmental science, Conditional probability, Probability density function, Distribution (mathematics), Hydrology (agriculture)