The ABM Treaty and theater missile defense : proposed changes and potential implications

Abstract : The Clinton Administration recently decided to establish a formal understanding with Russia and other states of the former Soviet Union on the demarcation between theater missile defenses (TMD) and strategic ballistic missile defenses limited by the 1972 ABM (Anti-ballistic Missile) Treaty. Although the proposed changes to the Treaty apparently have been received warmly by Russia and other former Soviet states, some supporters of the ABM Treaty in the United States have voiced strong concerns and opposition. The proposed changes come at a time of increasing concern over the global proliferation of ballistic missiles and when advanced U.S. TMD programs approach their testing phase. Continued development of these programs depends on the outcome of current negotiations in Geneva. The Administration seeks to ensure that TMD systems can be deployed against 3,000 kilometer range missile threats. Currently, however, only China and Saudi Arabia possess these long-range theater systems in the developing world. Almost all of the tactical and theater-range ballistic missiles today travel less than about 900 kilometers. The future, however, especially concerning North Korean missile developments, is unclear. Because Congress has strongly supported the ABM Treaty as well as development of TMD programs, the current proposed ABM Treaty demarcation could focus congressional attention on the rationale and need for advanced mm programs. Some in Congress have also begun to assert the need for a formal Senate role in any potential ABM treaty change. Although the Administration indicates it will consult closely with Congress on the form of any final agreement, it is not sure that Congress will be asked to play a formal role.