On the relationship between the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and 2 m air temperature over central Asia in boreal winter

Abstract Linear regression is used to explore the relationship between the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) and 2 m air temperature (T2M) over central Asia in boreal winter during 1979–2012. During MJO phases 3 and 4 (7 and 8), T2M anomalies exhibit a significantly strong, negative (positive) response to the MJO from the Arabian Sea to northwestern China. The anomalies of T2M are essentially influenced by surface net downward long (Ldown) and shortwave radiations, which are caused by the changes in total cloud cover (TCC) and low‐level tropospheric air temperature. The anomalies of Ldown that are caused by TCC account for 20–65% of total Ldown. The remaining anomalies of total Ldown are explained by low‐level air temperature changes. The 850 hPa air temperature (T850) tendency is mainly affected by the vertical motion over central Asia during MJO phases 1, 2, 4–6, and 8, as well as over northern India during phases 3 and 7. Over Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, and northwestern China, the anomalies of T850 tendency are mainly explained by the temperature advection during phases 3 and 7. TCC and vertical motion are affected by the evolution of the MJO event. The cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation related to the MJO over central Asia during phases 3 and 4 (7 and 8) causes the transport of cold (warm) air over central Asia. The MJO can be a useful intraseasonal signal to predict winter T2M over central Asia, where temperatures would be colder (warmer) than normal during MJO phases 3 and 4 (7 and 8).