Expectations of a Low Birth Society —From the Perspective of Historical Demography—

Fertility in Japan has fallen under the population reproductive standard for the past quarter century and it continues to decline. The low birth rate has precipitated the demographic aging of Japanese society which has produced pro- jections of a population decrease. Studies on the merits and demerits of a low birth rate vary, but the general concern is that a low birth rate is debilitating to both society and the economy and will lead to the eventual ruin of the country. This unprecedented transition is very alarming, but it is not necessarily an abnormal phenomenon in terms of historical demography. The objective of this presentation is to evaluate Japan's low birth rate from a historical demographic perspective. Firstly, the long-term population wave over the past 10,000 year period, which is closely linked to systematic changes in Japanese civilization, will be discussed. Secondly, the trend toward late marriages and low child births that occurred during the latter half of the pre-modern Tokugawa period will be discussed. Lastly, if Japan achieves the status of a prosperous, aging nation with a low birth rate, its accom- plishment will contribute greatly to resolving the global population, environmental, and resource issues.