TOWARDS A NEW PROBABILITY CURRICULUM FOR SECONDARY SCHOOLS

All is not well for probability in the school mathematics curriculum. Students typically have little problem with elementary aspects, but many find it very difficult to know how to structure more complex problems. They rarely have well-developed informal methods of grasping the essence of a problem nor do they have any intuition as to whether they are applying the right formula in the right way. Our approach is based on mathematical modelling, in which all stages of the modelling cycle, not just the calculation stage, can be included. We believe giving students problems which model real life helps them to develop a greater range of methods and intuitions than the standard approach does. We also believe that considering multiple representations simultaneously and using whole numbers (natural frequencies) as far as possible help students to grasp the essence of the analysis of a problem. The teacher’s role in asking key questions is also a vital component.