Determinants of Chances in Housing Tenure Status in The United States

This paper is an analysis of current trends in housing tenure changes for national samples of recent movers. Data are from the 1974 and 1976 Annual Housing Surveys. Previous tenure status is used as a control variable. Mobility status (direction and distance of move) is used as a measure of demand differences across housing markets. Tenure choices of previous home owners have been analyzed separately from those of previous renters. The results indicate that the most important determinant of change from renting to owning is total family income, but the probability of changing from owning to renting is largely determined by the incidence of marital dissolution. These results may reflect the effects of recent demographic trends toward a higher proportion of divorced, never-married and widowed households. The conclusion is that, in view of the dynamics of ongoing marital and income changes, high rates of housing tenure change in either direction will prevail in future housing markets.