THE LONG TERM GLOBAL CONTEXT AND ITS IMPLICATIONS ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE

The paper analyzes the long term factors of influence for international trade and includes among them: output measured by GDP as representing the supply, population as representing the demand, and a number of variables that influence supply and demand (purchasing power, institutional changes, technology, climate change, etc.). The conclusion is that the relative position of the major players in the world economy will change in the coming decades and that decision makers at macroeconomic level have to take into account all these factors of influence in order to participate in a competitive and efficient manner to the global trade flows.